Punish Watch

Punish Watch tracks the race nobody wants to win: fewest regular-season wins. We simulate the rest of the season — each remaining game decided by resampling both teams' real weekly scores this year — and rank the final standings by wins, breaking ties on total points scored exactly like the league does. Each team's Punish % is how often that simulation lands them in the punishment seat (dead last). This measures who's most likely to actually finish last, which isn't always the team with the fewest projected wins — schedule strength and a team's boom-or-bust scoring both swing it.